The Rise and Fall of UKIP and the 2015 and 2017 General Elections
Click here for UKIP; The story of the UK Independence Party’s Rise [BBC 2014]
Click here for BBC coverage of the European Parliament Election 2009
Click here for BBC coverage of the European Parliament Elections 2014
Click here for BBC Coverage of 2015 General Election
Click here for BBC Coverage of the 2016 EU Referendum
Click here for BBC coverage of the 2017 General Election
- UKIP has always been more successful in European Parliament Elections [held via a form of PR] than in UK general Elections held via FPTP.
- Between 1997 and 2010 the UKIP share of the vote in General Election rose gradually from 0.3% to 3.1%. In each case no parliamentary seats were won.
- However, between the 1994 and 2014 European Parliament Elections the UKIP share of the vote rose from 1% to 27.5% and its number of seats rose from 0/87 to 24/73. Ukip came second behind the Conservative Party in 2009 and first in the 2014 European Parliament Election.
- The increased popularity of UKIP combined with increasing Euroscepticism in the Conservative Party led David Cameron to believe that it would be necessary to promise an in -out EU Referendum if he was to retain his leadership of the Conservative Party and lead it to General Election victory in 2015 although he may also have hoped that if a Conservative -Liberal Democrat Coalition was returned , opposition from the Liberal Democrats would mean that he could avoid redeeming his pledge.
- Tory MPs Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless defect to the Tories in 2014. Douglas Carswell retained his seat in the 2015 General Election but Mark Reckless did not .
- In the 2015 General Election ,the UKIP share of vote increased significantly to 12.6% and UKIP won one parliamentary seat. However, the Conservative General Election victory obliged David Cameron to grant the Referendum which resulted eventually in the UK’s exit from the EU which meant that the fundamental aim of UKIP would be achieved.
- During the Referendum Campaign , there were disputes within the Brexit Campaign between the Official Vote Leave Campaign and the Leave EU organisation, which was supported by UKIP, but despite these disagreements it is fair to say that both organisations contributed in diverse ways to the eventual victory of the Brexit Campaign.
- Once the Brexit campaign was won, it seemed likely that support for UKIP might decline to some extent but in the event, the decline of UKIP was even faster than might have been expected.
- Click here for an article by Matt Withers in The New European [June 2023] on the recent history of Ukip which describes a series of party crises and changes of Ukip party leadership which intensified when Nigel Farage stood down from the leadership of Ukip in July 2016 and stated in April 2017 that he would not stand for election in the upcoming UK General Election.
- Mr Farage was replaced as leader [for 18 days] by Dianne James who was subsequently replaced by Paul Nuttall .
- Douglas Carswell, UKIP’s only MP, had left UKIP to sit in Parliament as an Independent MP in March 2017. There had been considerable disagreements between Carswell and Farage over the issue of immigration during the Brexit Campaign
- Despite its strong performance in the 2015 General Election, UKIP electoral prospects now appeared bleak and new leader Paul Nuttall had failed , perhaps unsurprisingly, to win a byelection in March 2019and in the General Election of 2017 .the UKIP share of the vote fell back to 1.8% which was below the percentage which it had achieved in 2005. Paul Nuttall then resigned as leader.
- Gerard Batten became leader in 2018 and took the party in a rightward and Islamophobic direction which prompted Nigel Farage and most of Ukip MEPs to leave the party in 2018 and Farage’s launch of the Brexit Party in 2019 signalled what looks like the almost terminal decline of Ukip.
- Click here and here and here for Gerrard Batten, Tommy Robinson and Nigel Farage
- Click here for Wikipedia on Ukip
The Brexit Party
The Brexit Party was launched in April 2019 with ex UKIP leader Nigel Farage coming out of retirement to lead it. It performed very well in the European Parliament Elections of 2019 but poorly in the 2019 General Election partly because Nigel Farage had announced that Brexit would not field candidates in the 397 seats which the Conservatives had won in 2017 to win. [ However, analysts have subsequently argued that this helped the Labour Party electorally . See below].
Click here for The Rise of the Brexit Party
Click here for Building the Brexit Party
Click here for A Simple Guide to the Brexit Party
Click here for BBC Coverage of the 2019 European Parliament Election
Click here for Brexit Party Dominates
Click here for The Highs and Lows of Nigel Farage
Click here for Nigel Farage: The Story of Mr Brexit
Click here for BBC Coverage of the 2 019 General Election
Click here for the Brexit Party and the 2019 General Election
Click here for the Brexit Party and the 2019 General Election
Click here for the Brexit Party and the 2019 General Election
Click here for the Brexit Party and the 2019 General Election
Reform UK
Brexit having been delivered, it was not surprising that the Brexit Party might rebrand and in 2021, the Brexit Party changed its name to Reform UK.
Click here for ongoing Guardian coverage of Reform UK
Click here for YouGov and here for Redfield Wilton poll data.
Click here for information Richard Tice
Click here for Reform UK prospects.
Click here for Reform UK Party Conference 2021
Click here for Reform UK and 2023 Local Elections
Click here for Richard Tice Profile
Click here for Reform UK as a threat to the Conservative Party
Click here for defection of Lee Anderson to Reform UK
Click here for an item on The Brexit Party and Reform UK [Sky News]
Click here for the Conservatives and Nigel Farage